Climate Risk Assessment and Management in Rwanda.

Abstract

Motivated by the needs to predict the climate condition in Rwanda we used the national report for fundamental understanding the national mitigation and adaptation techniques for climate risk management and for management policy prediction. The study identified and mentioned the climate risk in Rwanda, which have greater effect on population health and their economy. We also forecast for future using different models including MAGICC for greenhouse gases prediction and SCENGEN for temperature, precipitation and pressure in their variability, and a range of other statistics and also we use HYSPLIT Model for transboundary sources of air pollution in dry season using GDAS meteorological data for backward air pollution sources in Rwanda and forecasting the future sources, which will be very helpful in developing new mitigation and adaptation project for climate resilience, during August the air pollutants comes very far some from Asia other from North Africa mainly in Lybia, while the forward does not go beyond DRC. During this study we was realize that the seasonal shift in Rwanda threaten population planned activities and cause disasters and reduce yield production, the greenhouse gases emission in Rwanda will be reduced in 2050 compared to the baseline situation and the global annual temperature change will be 1.58^oC and 24.8% in Rwanda while the annual pressure is 9.5% and annual precipitation is -13.3%  in 2050.