Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature at Kamembe in Western Province of Rwanda.

Abstract

This research was conducted using monthly average temperature and rainfall data measured at Kamembe weather station located in Western province of Rwanda to estimate in separate section the trends, the seasonal variability, to identify all possible ARIMA models and the best model to be used in forecasting the future temperature and rainfall condition at Kamembe, and also to make a linkage of temperature and rainfall to the lighting. R programming and R studio was used to achieve on our objectives. From 1961 to 2017 for both parameters the monthly average rainfall and temperature varies between 0-287mm and 22.32-28.34^oC. The minimum monthly rainfall intensity was obtained during long dry season exactly June and the maximum intensity was observed during shorter rainy season mainly October but during long rainy season in February the intensity of rainfall is nearly close to that of October, and minimum temperature was observed during long rain season mainly during May and very close to that observed during November while the maximum monthly average temperature was observed during long dry season exactly during August. We have estimating all possible ARIMA models to be used and we identify the best model for analyzing monthly average rainfall and monthly average temperature data and forecasting which was ARIMA (3,0,3) (2,1,2) [12] and ARIMA (5,1,0) (2,0,0) [12] respectively. By forecasting we realize that the temperature will continue to increase up to 2022, thus higher water will be deposited in atmosphere as tthunderstorms which are GHG and this phenomenon together with others mainly such as ITCZ and Kamembe topography will cause the increase of lighting.