Impacts of Climate Variables on Respiratory Diseases in Infants and Children in Kigali City.

Abstract

Acute respiratory diseases are amongst the common illness in infants and children under 5 years old. These diseases are often suspected to be associated with climate variables. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between climate variables and Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) and pneumonia prevalence in infants and children under 5 years old in Kigali city, during the period of 2014-2018. Spearman correlation followed by Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was used to determine the relationship between total monthly rainfall, average humidity and temperature and respiratory diseases. Before quantitatively estimate the relationship between climate variables and respiratory diseases using GLM, we checked the linearity between these groups using the Generalized Additive Models. Correlations analysis showed that rainfall had a moderate positive correlation with Pneumonia (coefficient of correlation, ρ, ranged between 0.395 and 0.747) and a weak positive correlation with ARI (coefficient of correlation varied between 0.274 and 0.579). Relative humidity also demonstrated a moderate positive correlation to both diseases with the coefficient of correlation varying between 0.497 and 0.730. The study found that treated ceases of ARI increased by 0.10% to 0.55% and 2.90% to 8.55% for each millimeter increase in rainfall and each percentage increases in humidity, respectively. While pneumonia cases increased by 0.29% to 0.91% and 0.35% to 6.47% for each millimeter increase in rainfall and each percentage increase in relative humidity, respectively. This study concludes that climate variables have to be considered as possible factors impacting the prevalence of Pneumonia and ARI cases in infants and children under 5 years old in Kigali city, and this should be considered by local public health authorities when providing health education for people preparing them for higher risk seasons.